Between now and the opening ceremony, I'll be taking a look at the nations participating in this year's World Cup, an event which is slowly consuming me with excitement. Share my pain! Today rounds off the Group B previews with Greece, an average side with an extraordinary recent history. It will be remembered as one of the all-time shocks in footballing history, a testament to organisation and tactical discipline. Greece's Euro 2004 victory was undoubtedly the most unlikely footballing triumph the 21st century has yet seen, although judging by their subsequent performances, any success at the 2010 World Cup may surpass it.
How did they get there?
Despite being drawn in arguably the weakest European qualification group (Group 2 was comprised of Greece, Israel, Switzerland, Moldova, Latvia and Luxembourg), Greece were unable to push ahead when it mattered- losing twice to Switzerland, who eventually topped the group. They also made heavy weather of Moldova and Luxembourg, losing concentration at crucial moments. More worrying than that however was their defensive performance, with only three clean sheets in ten group games. These concerns were offset somewhat by the form of Theofanis Gekas, who was the top scorer in the European qualification phase, with ten goals.
This led Greece to a tricky-looking playoff against the Ukraine, and most (myself included) expected that to be that, particularly after the first leg ended 0-0 in Athens. I remember watching the first half of that match, and I can honestly say that a worse 45 minutes of football I have not seen. The second leg was slightly better, and Greece prevailed with a narrow 1-0 victory, thus securing a place in only their second World Cup finals. The tie with the Ukraine can be viewed as a microcosm of Greece's fortunes in recent years- a combination of improbable success and an inability to dispatch smaller, less challenging opposition.
Who's the coach?
Forget Pep Guardiola, if you want success and stability, you'll need an old hand. Otto Rehhagel has been the Greek coach since 2001, and the events of 2004 have understandably put him in a position where it's almost impossible to fire him, even after he failed to secure a place in the 2006 tournament, even after Greece mounted what was arguably the worst title defence in history at Euro 2008, where they were eliminated with just one goal scored in three defeats.
Following that embarrassing episode, many fans and media figures called for a change, at managerial and player level. Yet the innate conservatism that has dominated Greek governance since the Second World War has permeated into its footballing hierarchy, and Rehhagel has been retained for another crack at the World Cup.
Tactically, the 71 year-old will undoubtedly be described on British television as a 'wily old fox', or words to that effect. Whilst it is true that his teams are often dull, there is a certain pleasure to be taken (to my way of thinking) in watching a team perform above and beyond the sum of their abilities, frustrating more flamboyant outfits. This been a Rehhagel trademark, particularly during his time at Werder Bremen, where over 14 years he transformed them from a provincial side into one of the most stable and successful teams in the Bundesliga. It is telling that upon arriving at Bayern Munich in 1995, he immediately clashed with the hierarchy and many players, particularly Jurgen Klinsmann. Fired just three weeks before a UEFA Cup final in his debut season, he was soon back in the provinces, where he led FC Kaiserslautern first to promotion from the 2.Bundesliga, and then to a remarkable Bundesliga title the following season (1997/8).
Rehhagel is undoubtedly one of the most successful German managers ever, although until 2004 he was less recognised outside of his home country, most probably due to his unfussy managerial and tactical style, as well as his intolerance for star players and clubs.
Ones to watch:
Unsurprisingly, Rehhagel is a manager who believes in building his teams around a core of experienced players, with age generally taking primacy over youthful promise. His 2004 side had six players over the age of 30, and of that team, expect to see Seitaridis, Karagounis and Katsouranis maintain a starting place this time around.
The retirement of a number of key players has forced Rehhagel into blooding some relatively new faces, the most promising of whom is probably the Genoa centre-back Papastathopoulos, along with Liverpool's Kyrgiakos, who despite his dodgy performances in the Premier League, was instrumental during the qualifying campaign. Creative outlets will be limited in what will undoubtedly be a counter-attacking side, but the Panathanaikos trio of Karagounis, Katsouranis and Christodoulopoulos are vital if Greece are to enable Gekas to continue the goalscoring form that he showed during the qualifying phase.
Those players will form the nucleus of the side, but if I were Rehhagel, I would consider bringing the Olympiacos striker Mitroglou into the starting XI. He's young (22), fast (a quality severely lacking in this ageing squad), and has blossomed into a dangerous target man, netting 14 goals this season, including a fine volley in the Champions League against Bordeaux.
How will they do?
It's never a good sign when I reserve my most effusive praise for a player who is unlikely to start a game, and despite his success, it is the aforementioned inflexibility which will likely prove to be the undoing of Rehhagel and Greece. Although Euro 2004 (and more recently Inter Milan) have proven that defensive tactics can lead to success when performed effectively, the key word here is when. The back line which won Greece that tournament has largely been broken up, and the once bustling, dynamic midfield has not improved with age. Karagounis and Katsouranis remain fine players, but it is unwise to rely too much on those who have seen their best years pass them by. There is promise in this Greek squad, but I would be surprised if it were enough to see them beyond the group stage, and Rehhagel into another major tournament.
My prediction: Eliminated at the group stage.
Previous previews:
South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay, France (Group A).
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