Monday, May 17, 2010

World Cup Preview no. 10: USA

Between now and the opening ceremony, I'll be taking a look at the nations participating in this year's World Cup, an event which is slowly consuming me with excitement. Share my pain! Today we look at England's first opponents, or as I like to call them, The Colony (just kidding American readers).

Much like South Korea, America is a country where traditionally football hasn't had a particularly high profile, but nevertheless, the national side has been one of the most consistent performers of recent times- 2010 will be their sixth consecutive World Cup appearance, an achievement which is admirable, but undoubtedly aided by the weakness of their fellow CONCACAF members. But as we saw last summer at the Confederations Cup, USA! USA! (as they shall hereafter be known, credit: The Fiver) are capable of some impressive performances against seemingly superior opposition.

How did they get there?
Efficiently. Along with Mexico, the USA are top dogs in CONCACAF, and this time around, they took full advantage of the dip in form from the regional rivals (see my Mexico preview for more details) and qualified in clinical fashion, the high point of the campaign probably being a 3-2 away win against Honduras, in a venue notorious for its anti-American hostility...I wonder why. But I digress...

Their only two defeats came against Trinidad & Tobago (when they had already advanced to the second phase) and against Mexico at the Azteca Stadium, one of the most intimidating venues in world football, so no shame there. The major issue for me is defence, where they conceded thirteen goals, more than both Mexico and Honduras, the other two qualifiers from CONCACAF. Considering the standard of opposition, that should be worrying the coach, a man who does worrying pretty well, as you'll see below.

Who's the coach?
In an era when player power is becoming more pronounced, when agents routinely bypass clubs when laying the groundwork for transfers, men like Bob Bradley are something of a rarity. Following a disappointing World Cup in 2006 (a single point from three group games), most observers expected California resident and recently departed Germany coach Jurgen Klinsmann to be appointed the new head coach, with the idea being that he would combine his familiarity with American soccer culture with his proven international track record, having just taken an unfancied German side to the semi-finals.

Following his embarrassing stint at Bayern, we know that for all his greatness as a player, Jurgen Klinsmann the manager is at best a great judge of backroom staff, and at worst a man out of his depth. When contract negotiations broke down, the USSF chose Bradley as an interim coach, presumably whilst a more high-profile figure was sought. But during this period Bradley went about assembling a ten-game undefeated streak, including a 2-0 win over Mexico, and was named Head Coach in May 2007. He then proceeded to win the Gold Cup, and quickly developed a reputation for getting the best out his players, if not much affection from them.

Bradley (born in Montclair NJ, Sopranos fans) is a coach in the mould of Louis Van Gaal, generally remaining aloof and terse with the media, whilst proving willing to pick his starting XI from a deep pool of players, with previous achievements playing little part in his selection choices. A strict disciplinarian, his methods have not yet been questioned, a fact undoubtedly linked to his continued success, which culminated at the Confederations Cup, where he could often be seen brooding and muttering on the touchline. An uncharismatic coach, but nevertheless an effective one.

Ones to watch:
Despite the continued expansion of the MLS, which will grow to eighteen teams within the next couple of seasons, and currently resides in terms of quality somewhere between League One and the Championship, the USA has caught up with the rest of the world in at least one respect- their top players now play in Europe, almost without exception.

Of Bradley's initial selection of twenty-eight, nineteen are currently playing in Europe, a development which has undoubtedly accelerated the rise of the national team, which now lies 14th in FIFA's rankings. Most names will be familiar to any casual fan- Tim Howard, Clint Dempsey and Landon Donovan are close to the best in their positions in the Premier League, and the squad is also packed with promise- Jozy Altidore and Stuart Holden will become decent Premier League professionals given time.

However, as I mentioned earlier there are holes in a defence which was widely hailed last summer, particularly following the famous defeat of Spain. Jay Demerit was outstanding that day, both outmuscling and outclassing Fernando Torres. He is currently without a club, having let his contract with Watford expire, presumably expecting a more high-profile after the World Cup. I generally don't let my club bias shine through on this blog, because let's face it, no one really wants to read about Watford apart from other Watford fans.

But if Demerit gets anywhere near his performances of last summer in June, I'll be stunned. This season, he has been captain and starting centre-back in one of the Championship's worst defences, a defence which conceded an average of 1.5 goals per game. He is often left flat-footed by quicker players, regularly berates his defensive colleagues for the smallest, most inconsequential mistakes, and is a poor communicator, capable of shocking lapses in concentration. I'm not saying this because he's just left Watford, I'm calling it as I see it. We're better off without the guy, so if you read a preview praising him, just remember this one, written by someone who's almost certainly seen him more than whoever wrote it, ok? His partner was Oguchi Onyewu, who secured a move to AC Milan following his performances, but has not played a game this season thanks to a long-term injury. With their replacements of negligible quality, defence is, as I have previously said, the major worry for Bradley.

Further up the field, the relationship between Michael Bradley (and yes, he is the son of Bob) and Landon Donovan is crucial. Undoubtedly the most talented players in the squad, both are in possession of great vision, Bradley with the ball at his feet, Donovan with his ability to find space behind and between defenders. Both have benefited from their European experience this season- Donovan at Everton and Bradley at Borussia Monchengladbach, and look completely at home at the higher level. Bradley in particular has improved greatly, he was inconsistent last summer, but is now fully capable of controlling ball distribution with a wide range of passing, short and long.

How will they do?
Given a favourable draw, the USA are undoubtedly capable of progressing into the round of 16, and perhaps beyond. As with any group stages followed by knockout format, this isn't entirely in their hands. Bradley will hope to frustrate England and come away with a draw, or a counter-attacking win. I can see the former coming to pass, although the thought of Wayne Rooney against Demerit and Onyewu is not one to cheer USA fans.

Algeria and Slovenia are more manageable propositions, as we shall see in the next couple of days. As for the round of 16...given my current thoughts on Group D, it's unlikely that the USA will get to match their 2002 performance, where they were among the last eight teams. But more of that later this week. God bless America.

My prediction: Eliminated in the round of 16.

Previous previews:

Saturday, May 15, 2010

World Cup Preview no. 9: England

Between now and the opening ceremony, I'll be taking a look at the nations participating in this year's World Cup, an event which is slowly consuming me with excitement. Share my pain! Group C opens with Our Glorious Nation, Engerland.

I'm going to put it out there early- I have a problem with lending unconditional support to a national side. Perhaps it's because I'm not a huge fan of the Premier League, perhaps it's because I hate the jingoistic media coverage that dominates in this country, perhaps I just dislike any team containing John Terry, but it's difficult to write in an unbiased way about England. I'm fully aware that during the tournament itself I'll be sucked into the wave of mass hysteria, and maybe that's what worries me the most, the mental weaknesses that England expose. Either way, right now it's easier to get excited about reserve Greek strikers, and that about sums up my feelings towards this England squad.

How did they get there?
After the debacle of the Euro 2008 qualification campaign, what England needed more than anything was a trouble-free, goal-heavy run of games, with a place in the top seeds pot at the end of it. Incredibly, that's what they got, with the only defeat coming once qualification had already been secured. Sections of the press clearly weren't prepared for this (hell, I certainly wasn't) and so they defaulted to their let's attempt a crisis mode, citing perceived deficiencies all across the pitch, from goalkeeper (fair) to midfield (not so fair).

I know it's reductionist, and easy to say because it's not my job, but I wish that people would analyse the England team far, far less than they do. History tells us that a decent qualification campaign or otherwise generally has very little impact on the tournament that follows it. The reasons for this are as numerous as they are obvious- preparation time, the removal of seasonal club-related pressures, etc...yet somehow we expect to be illuminated as to the status of the team by watching them on a godawful pitch against negative, godawful teams, in the middle of a tiring season. So the world turns.

Who's the coach?
It's a shame that the Capello Index story was buried right before he announced his 30-man provisional squad, as I for one was looking forward to seeing if it would continue to justify his selection of John Terry over, I don't know, anyone. But perhaps I was always hoping for too much. The fact that such a non-story briefly caused waves indicates how frustrating Capello must be to certain sections of the press (I promise that's the last time I use that phrase in this preview) who are used to Sven and Schteve writing their stories for them. In Capello, England have for the first time since Bobby Robson an articulate, intelligent, well-travelled manager who has an almost unblemished track record of success in every aspect of his job, a man who presided over one of the greatest performances of all time- AC Milan's 4-0 destruction of an outstanding Barcelona side in the 1994 European Cup Final.

As England manager, he has attempted to purge (with varying degrees of success) the clubby mentality that pervaded the squad before his arrival, and I have particularly enjoyed his evident frustration at the morons he has had to deal with. After Cassano, he must have thought he'd seen everything. And even now, after all these feats, he does more to make me love him- he considers a switch to 3-5-2. Fabio, stop it, please, not in public.

Ones to watch:
For a more in-depth dissection of the pros and cons of England switching to 3-5-2, I thoroughly recommend this excellent, excellent piece by Zonal Marking. I have little to add to it beyond agreement, and would remind readers that when a formation or style is dismissed out of hand in England, it's generally either because it's not fully understood, or we were never very good at it. Capello won Serie A using 3-5-2, and in 2010 it would be particularly beneficial to Glen Johnson, who would have more licence to do what he does best- bomb forward. It would also allow Frank Lampard (England's best midfielder) more space, as Gerrard could be pushed further up the field in his favoured number 10 role. There are issues with the formation, as teams with wingers would have a field day against the flat-footed Terry or Upson, and an unfit Ferdinand.

Whether Capello will eventually decide on the formation is unclear, I'llknow more after I watch England play Mexico on the 24th of this month. Either way, it'll make for a more interesting discussion than who should play alongside Wayne Rooney.

How will they do?
It's tempting, very tempting, to predict another quarter-final exit. But because I respect Capello more than any other manager England have had in the last twenty years, because England are (if my Group predictions are correct, which they are) in a fairly forgiving half of the draw, and because it's My Country (just kidding) I can genuinely see a semi-final spot where, by my calculations, they will be eliminated by the eventual winners. I'm not going to spoil my previews by revealing who that side may be, but take a look at the knockout stage and see for yourself. There's less than a month to go, if you haven't got one of those to fill out by now, shame on you. It's a beautiful day, what are you waiting for?

My prediction: Semi-finals.

Previous previews:

Friday, May 14, 2010

World Cup Preview no. 8: Greece

Between now and the opening ceremony, I'll be taking a look at the nations participating in this year's World Cup, an event which is slowly consuming me with excitement. Share my pain! Today rounds off the Group B previews with Greece, an average side with an extraordinary recent history.

It will be remembered as one of the all-time shocks in footballing history, a testament to organisation and tactical discipline. Greece's Euro 2004 victory was undoubtedly the most unlikely footballing triumph the 21st century has yet seen, although judging by their subsequent performances, any success at the 2010 World Cup may surpass it.

How did they get there?
Despite being drawn in arguably the weakest European qualification group (Group 2 was comprised of Greece, Israel, Switzerland, Moldova, Latvia and Luxembourg), Greece were unable to push ahead when it mattered- losing twice to Switzerland, who eventually topped the group. They also made heavy weather of Moldova and Luxembourg, losing concentration at crucial moments. More worrying than that however was their defensive performance, with only three clean sheets in ten group games. These concerns were offset somewhat by the form of Theofanis Gekas, who was the top scorer in the European qualification phase, with ten goals.

This led Greece to a tricky-looking playoff against the Ukraine, and most (myself included) expected that to be that, particularly after the first leg ended 0-0 in Athens. I remember watching the first half of that match, and I can honestly say that a worse 45 minutes of football I have not seen. The second leg was slightly better, and Greece prevailed with a narrow 1-0 victory, thus securing a place in only their second World Cup finals. The tie with the Ukraine can be viewed as a microcosm of Greece's fortunes in recent years- a combination of improbable success and an inability to dispatch smaller, less challenging opposition.

Who's the coach?
Forget Pep Guardiola, if you want success and stability, you'll need an old hand. Otto Rehhagel has been the Greek coach since 2001, and the events of 2004 have understandably put him in a position where it's almost impossible to fire him, even after he failed to secure a place in the 2006 tournament, even after Greece mounted what was arguably the worst title defence in history at Euro 2008, where they were eliminated with just one goal scored in three defeats.

Following that embarrassing episode, many fans and media figures called for a change, at managerial and player level. Yet the innate conservatism that has dominated Greek governance since the Second World War has permeated into its footballing hierarchy, and Rehhagel has been retained for another crack at the World Cup.

Tactically, the 71 year-old will undoubtedly be described on British television as a 'wily old fox', or words to that effect. Whilst it is true that his teams are often dull, there is a certain pleasure to be taken (to my way of thinking) in watching a team perform above and beyond the sum of their abilities, frustrating more flamboyant outfits. This been a Rehhagel trademark, particularly during his time at Werder Bremen, where over 14 years he transformed them from a provincial side into one of the most stable and successful teams in the Bundesliga. It is telling that upon arriving at Bayern Munich in 1995, he immediately clashed with the hierarchy and many players, particularly Jurgen Klinsmann. Fired just three weeks before a UEFA Cup final in his debut season, he was soon back in the provinces, where he led FC Kaiserslautern first to promotion from the 2.Bundesliga, and then to a remarkable Bundesliga title the following season (1997/8).

Rehhagel is undoubtedly one of the most successful German managers ever, although until 2004 he was less recognised outside of his home country, most probably due to his unfussy managerial and tactical style, as well as his intolerance for star players and clubs.

Ones to watch:
Unsurprisingly, Rehhagel is a manager who believes in building his teams around a core of experienced players, with age generally taking primacy over youthful promise. His 2004 side had six players over the age of 30, and of that team, expect to see Seitaridis, Karagounis and Katsouranis maintain a starting place this time around.

The retirement of a number of key players has forced Rehhagel into blooding some relatively new faces, the most promising of whom is probably the Genoa centre-back Papastathopoulos, along with Liverpool's Kyrgiakos, who despite his dodgy performances in the Premier League, was instrumental during the qualifying campaign. Creative outlets will be limited in what will undoubtedly be a counter-attacking side, but the Panathanaikos trio of Karagounis, Katsouranis and Christodoulopoulos are vital if Greece are to enable Gekas to continue the goalscoring form that he showed during the qualifying phase.

Those players will form the nucleus of the side, but if I were Rehhagel, I would consider bringing the Olympiacos striker Mitroglou into the starting XI. He's young (22), fast (a quality severely lacking in this ageing squad), and has blossomed into a dangerous target man, netting 14 goals this season, including a fine volley in the Champions League against Bordeaux.

How will they do?
It's never a good sign when I reserve my most effusive praise for a player who is unlikely to start a game, and despite his success, it is the aforementioned inflexibility which will likely prove to be the undoing of Rehhagel and Greece. Although Euro 2004 (and more recently Inter Milan) have proven that defensive tactics can lead to success when performed effectively, the key word here is when. The back line which won Greece that tournament has largely been broken up, and the once bustling, dynamic midfield has not improved with age. Karagounis and Katsouranis remain fine players, but it is unwise to rely too much on those who have seen their best years pass them by. There is promise in this Greek squad, but I would be surprised if it were enough to see them beyond the group stage, and Rehhagel into another major tournament.

My prediction: Eliminated at the group stage.

Thursday, May 13, 2010

World Cup Preview no. 7: Korea Republic

Between now and the opening ceremony, I'll be taking a look at the nations participating in this year's World Cup, an event which is slowly consuming me with excitement. Share my pain! Today we continue Group B with South Korea, or Korea Republic as they are now known, according to those noted internationalists at FIFA.

It hasn't received much coverage beyond the antics of Diego Maradona, but Group B is actually interesting me in quite a few ways. That might be because I'm sad, but consider this. Argentina aside, the teams which comprise Group B are all ones which have had their footballing watershed moments in the last couple of decades, Korea in particular. In a country which has traditionally been obsessed with baseball above all sports, the 2002 World Cup saw football gatecrash the national consciousness in the most memorable of ways: a run to the semi-finals which included victories over Portugal, Italy, and defending champions France. That, combined with Park Ji-Sung's continuing status as a key player at Manchester United, means that football, and the World Cup in particular, is now a big, big deal. But they'll have to be going some to emulate the achievements of that 2002 side, as we're about to find out...

How did they get there?
Although they are best known for what they accomplished eight years ago, Korea are one of the most consistent teams in world football, at least in terms of World Cup qualification. 2010 will be their seventh consecutive tournament, a fact that underlines their status as the dominant team in the Asian region.

Despite this, and the fact that at a glance their qualification campaign looks smooth (they topped their group in both tournament stages), the boat was rocked a little, particularly in the three matches with their northern neighbours, who restricted them to three draws and just one goal. However, this was balanced out by an impressive 1-1 in the hostile venue of Tehran, along with a 2-0 victory away to the United Arab Emirates. Now you might quibble at the level of opposition, and rightly so (the Asian confederation is undoubtedly weak), but away results have been an achilles heel for most Asian sides, and South Korea themselves only have one World Cup win outside of Korea, which came against Togo in the 2006 tournament. So qualification, along with an impressive 3-1 win away to Japan has injected a sense of optimism into a side which is less impressive than that of 2002.

Who's the coach?
Recent years have seen a reliance from South Korea on European coaches, an understandable state of affairs given that it was Guus Hiddink who guided them to such successes in 2002. Since then, three Dutchmen have been in charge of the national side, the most recent being Pim Verbeek, who resigned in order to take over Australia.

This led to a shift of thought within the KFA, and a decision was taken to appoint Huh Jung-Moo, an experienced coach who had held the post twice before, on a short-term basis. Despite the seemingly nationalistic motivation behind the appointment, Huh nevertheless has ties with Holland, having played as a midfielder for PSV Eindhoven in the early 1980's, during which time he participated in various pre-season tournaments designed to boost the profile of football in his home country. As one of the first Koreans to play at a high level in Europe, Huh is naturally viewed as a pioneer in Korea, and wields a significant amount of capital within the footballing establishment.

Ones to watch:
Much of this goodwill towards Huh stems from his ability to get the best out of players who are no longer employed within the domestic footballing scene. As with many nations, South Korea increasingly sees its best and brightest prospects move abroad, and a fundamental task for national coaches is reconciling public levels of resentment and suspicion with the simple fact that these players are pre-requisites for success in international tournaments.

You will by now have realised that I'm largely referring to the captain, Park Ji-Sung. Having become a national icon during the 2002 tournament, Park has since endured an uneasy relationship with the national side, with his role in the Manchester United machine meaning that his commitment to playing international games has often been called into question. However, having himself played in Europe, Huh has thus far been adept at integrating Park into his World Cup plans, along with the Bolton winger Lee Chung-yong, a player who possesses raw, intuitive talent. How did he end up at the Reebok?

Of the thirty players named by Huh, only five play club football in Europe- Park, Lee, Cha Du-ri (Freiburg), Ki Sung-yong (Celtic), and most intriguingly, Park Chu-young of Monaco. Having joined the Ligue 1 side in 2008, the 24 year-old has made steady progress, and become adept at playing in a variety of positions across the front line. He first caught my eye with his excellent dead-ball deliveries and impressive turn of pace, and has scored eight goals in twenty-six starts this season. That doesn't sound particularly inspiring I admit, but Monaco are a low-scoring team in a low scoring league (they managed just 39 in 38 league games in 2009/10), and Park shows promise. He has been linked with Fulham (former home of fellow squad member Seol Ki-Hyeon), and I wouldn't be surprised if he pitched up at a Premier League side before long.

How will they do?
As merited an achievement as reaching the semi-finals in 2002 was, I'd be stunned if South Korea made it that far again. I'm not a betting man (slippery slope), but I'd imagine that the odds are suitably long, and with good reason. This is a team in possession of some exciting individual talent, but also plagued by that previously mentioned inability to perform consistently well away from home. The 2006 tournament was fairly disappointing, despite an admittedly tough group, and expectations have been lowered accordingly- the KFA are offering bonuses of $150,000 for progress to the round of 16.

The draw has been somewhat kinder to Korea this time around, and Huh's reign has seen a more settled and unified squad develop, all of which is cause for optimism, but the opening game against a gritty Greece side (more about them tomorrow) will likely determine whether the players leave South Africa significantly richer. I have a feeling they just might.

My prediction: Eliminated in the round of 16.

Previous previews:

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

World Cup Preview no. 6: Nigeria

Between now and the opening ceremony, I'll be taking a look at the nations participating in this year's World Cup, an event which is slowly consuming me with excitement. Share my pain! We continue Group B today with Nigeria, one of a number of African nations to opt for a European manager this year.

Although they didn't reach the World Cup for the first time until 1994, Nigeria gave me my first abiding memory of African football, when they defeated Spain 3-2 in the 1998 World Cup. This victory, despite the fact that it was followed by an embarrassing 4-1 loss to Denmark in the round of 16, confirmed their position as the pre-eminent African team of the 1990's, and with players like Kanu and Okocha, they were one of the more exciting sides around. Much has changed since then, and the rise of the Ivory Coast has seen Nigeria's stock decline somewhat, but they'll always have my goodwill.

How did they get there?
Although they topped their group in the final qualifying round, Nigeria certainly left it late. Having failed to beat Mozambique in their opening game, and then only drawn at home with Tunisia, it looked as if the Super Eagles would miss out on their second consecutive World Cup. However, Tunisia did them a favour by losing to Mozambique, and Nigeria scraped an away win against Kenya, with the help of a late goal from Obafemi Martins. All in all it was a fairly unconvincing campaign, punctuated by a painful Nations Cup exit at the hands of their West African rivals Ghana. Having secured qualification, the Nigerian FA clearly decided that changes were needed, more of which below...

Who's the coach?
Without wishing to get too philosophical, one of the meta-narratives of African football is the relationship between the old colonial powers and their former subjects, in tactical and organisational terms. Witness the actions of the Nigerian FA upon qualification for the World Cup- they fired Shaibu Amodu and interviewed a number of European candidates, which reportedly included Glenn Hoddle, Philippe Troussier, and their eventual choice, Lars Lagerback.

Personally, I'd prefer to see nations develop their own distinct footballing culture, rather than aping those of the more established powers, but that's just the freedom fighter in me I guess. Tactically, Lagerback is a solid if unadventurous choice. Whilst manager of Sweden, he led them to five consecutive major tournaments, and developed a reputation for blending dependable defensive players with more flamboyant forwards. In theory this sounds like it could be exactly what Nigeria need- Amodu's reign was blighted by stories of indiscipline, particularly towards the end. In practice, it might be a case of too much too soon.

Amodu was a committed 4-3-3 man, whilst Lagerback has built his reputation on 4-4-2, with particular emphasis on wingers. Naturally players will have had experience of playing under different systems at club level, but Lagerback has a difficult task on his hands, having only taken the job at the end of February.

Ones to watch:
Despite being less fancied than the 1998 vintage, this Nigeria squad will undoubtedly be more familiar to casual viewers, containing household names such as Joseph Yobo, John Obi Mikel, Yakubu and the evergreen Kanu. It's a solid but fairly workmanlike team, with a distinct lack of flair players in the vein of Okocha, who was rumoured to be contemplating a return to football last year. They sure could do with with his close control and invention, because although Yakubu and Martins are adept at converting opportunities, it's difficult to see where the creativity is going to come from in this squad.

If Lagerback uses 4-4-2, a lot of responsibility will fall upon the shoulders of the wingers selected to start, particularly Peter Odemwingie, who is talented but has generally flattered to deceive in recent years. Under Amodu, he was somewhat marginalised tactically, but perhaps the added responsibility will galvanise him into action.

The same can be said for John Obi Mikel, who has emerged as the great white hope of Nigerian football. His conversion from an attacking midfielder to a functional holding player by Jose Mourinho may have served the interests of Chelsea, but it does nothing for a Nigerian side which, whatever formation they line up with, has a seriously problematic distance between the midfield and the strikers. It's unreasonable to expect a young player to shoulder the hopes of a nation, especially an introverted and unexpressive figure like Mikel, but he needs to find another dimension to his game if Nigeria are to utilise the talents of their forward line.

How will they do?
Expectations have been lowered significantly since the glory days of the 1990's, and that is all to the good for Nigeria. The appointment of Lagerback is understandable but somewhat disappointing, as his contract is up at the end of June, and one would have to assume that an unsuccessful tournament will ensure that it isn't renewed. Such short-term thinking is a depressing reality in modern football, but remains disappointing, coming as it does from a country with the recent tradition and talent pool (if not the infrastructure) to be players in the world game.

Of course, if Nigeria surpass expectations and progress beyond the group stage, then it will be hailed as a shrewd appointment by the Nigerian FA, and the practice of parachuting 'name' managers in will continue. Me? I sort of hope they flop, and domestic coaches are given more faith by associations who are all too often less concerned about football and more about finance. But that's cruel, and joyous players like Kanu and Odemwingie deserve better. They won't get it mind.

My prediction: Eliminated at the group stage.

Previous previews:

Monday, May 10, 2010

World Cup Preview no. 5: Argentina

Between now and the opening ceremony, I'll be taking a look at the nations participating in this year's World Cup, an event which is slowly consuming me with excitement. Share my pain! We begin Group B with Argentina, who in the last 18 months have become one of the most entertaining teams around, thanks to everyone's favourite lunatic, Diego Armando Maradona.

In 2002, Luiz Felipe Scolari was feeling the pressure. Having taken over a Brazil side experiencing something of a slump, his reign had been characterised not by an inspired reversal of fortune, but by a continuation of a malaise nobody had envisaged a few months previously. Here they were, a ridiculously talented side, blessed with some of the best players in the world, and they had only reached the World Cup through a combination of luck and inept opposition. We all know what happened of course- they won the tournament with swagger, style, and Seaman. There's a lesson in there somewhere, particularly when one is considering the chances of Argentina this time around.

How did they get there?
It might not have been pretty, but the 84th minute winner against Uruguay in the final round of games was a suitably tense end to one of the more memorable qualification campaigns of recent times. The low point was probably an abject 3-1 home defeat by Brazil, although the 6-1 defeat at the hands of Bolivia (and the woefully inadequate preparation before that match) was also a standout moment. For Argentina the 2010 qualifying campaign was like root canal treatment: they're just glad it's over.

Who's the coach?
At the beginning of May, Diego Maradona reached yet another numerical milestone, in a life littered with them (and I'm not talking about his weight fluctuations here). For Argentina's friendly against Haiti, arranged largely in order to bankroll his large contract (oh, and in a gesture of solidarity to Haiti, naturally) he picked the 108th player of his campaign. Even for a man who clearly thrives on chaos, this is a ludicrous number. Yet somehow, despite all the changes in positions and personnel, Maradona managed to fulfil his initial brief and secured Argentina's place at the World Cup.

Following the removal of Jose Pekerman in 2006, Argentina had embarked upon a random trail of destruction usually associated with excessive Jagermeister consumption. They lurched from one crisis to another, and it is a measure of how bad things were that Maradona was even considered for the post. But considered he was, and qualify them he did. Somehow. The debate is still raging (in my head anyway) about whether Argentina progressed because of Maradona or in spite of him. Currently I'm leaning towards the latter, but there is no denying that the man has presence, although whether that compensates for his shortcomings as a coach is questionable. For journalists he is perfect, a bountiful source of controversy and quotes. For fans of Argentina he must be terrifying.

Ones to watch:
I started this section of my France preview with the phrase 'despite the ineptitude of the coach' so I will refrain from doing so for a second consecutive post, but if I could, I would. Argentina have always produced reams of quality footballers, but in the globalised world of today the depth is more noticeable. Consider this selection who won't be going to South Africa: Javier Zanetti, Ever Banega, Esteban Cambiasso, Lucho Gonzalez, Javier Pastore, Pablo Aimar, Juan Roman Riquelme, and Lisandro Lopez. I could go on, but you get the point. Maradona might have chosen 108 players in his time as coach, but some have been given more chances than others.

Yet while all of the above have enjoyed excellent seasons, and would benefit most any World Cup squad, Maradona has made his choices, and will stand by them. In a strange way, I admire him for that. For all his tactical shortcomings, he realises that in order to allow Lionel Messi to flourish, the rest of the team must be rock-solid defensively. That means no attacking full-backs in the vein of Zanetti, instead it requires a line of four centre-backs across the defense (Otamendi, Samuel, Demichelis and Heinze). It also means that elegant, ball-playing midfielders are replaced with workhorses like Mascherano and Gutierrez, players who guarantee bite, tough tackling, and defensive effort. It even means that his beloved son-in-law Sergio Aguero will have to settle for a place on the substitutes bench, alongside Diego Milito and Carlos Tevez, both of whom have enjoyed prolific seasons at club level. Instead, Gonzalo Higuain, ignored for so long, has forced his way into the number 9 shirt, and deservedly so. He is blessed with that machine-like ability to score, score, and score again, as Hernan Crespo was a decade ago. His mobility and pace make him the perfect foil for the accuracy of Angel Di Maria, who is well placed to be the breakout star of this World Cup. Excellent in one-on-one situations, his pace makes him the perfect counter-attacking weapon.

Thus far, we have seen a team with functional attributes, and one which is fairly one-dimensional in nature. The sole luxury that Maradona has allowed himself is the Veron-Messi axis, the success or failure of which will determine whether chaos is followed by glory, as it was for Brazil in 2002. Plenty has been written of Messi this season, and even the most narrow-finded Little Premier Leaguer should by now be aware of his devastating ability in most every department of the attacking game. He is one of a kind. For those in the know, this has long been obvious.

Yet as we have seen throughout history, every genius needs a foil. At Barcelona, Messi has Xavi. Maradona and millions of Argentinians will be hoping that Juan Sebastian Veron can assume that role. For those of you who only remember his Premier League performances, prepare yourself for something a little different. Having reinvented himself at Estudiantes as a deep-lying playmaker in the mould of Andrea Pirlo, Veron is enjoying an Indian summer at the age of 35. The Premier League was never his game, but in Serie A he was known as the most accurate passer in world football, with the ability to receive, turn, and split defences with a single ball. For a counter-attacking side like Argentina, he has the potential to be a game-changing influence.

How will they do?
For all the enticing attacking possibilities mentioned in this preview, I have slightly glossed over the defensive problems faced by Argentina. The aforementioned foursome may have restricted Germany to a single shot on target during the recent 1-0 victory in Germany (something which has been used presented as vindication by Maradona), but a faster, more direct team should be capable of creating opportunities against them. That makes the goalkeeper more of an issue, and between Carrizo, Andujar, and Romero, it is difficult to find any world-class attributes. Pato Abbondanzieri could yet make a return at 38, but that would be a massive gamble considering his age and lack of playing time at Internacional.

Should everything come together nicely for Argentina, they will progress smoothly through the group stages, Veron and Messi will play at their best, and the defence will hold. Should that happen, confidence will rise and the sky will be the limit. But given the madness that has surrounded them since Maradona took over, who would predict such a turn of events? Only a fool...
My prediction: Semi-finals.

Previous previews:

Saturday, May 8, 2010

World Cup Preview no. 4: France

Between now and the opening ceremony, I'll be taking a look at the nations participating in this year's World Cup, an event which is slowly consuming me with excitement. Share my pain! Today we complete Group A with France, a country still getting over Euro 2008.

Cast your minds back to a couple of summers ago, just before the European Championships got underway. Remember how everyone was saying how inept Raymond Domenech was, that however well France did he'd be leaving after the tournament? Then recall how abject they were, those humiliating defeats at the hands of Holland and Italy. The fallout should have forced French football into a long, dark night of the soul, an extended period of introspection, in which it realised that for all his charisma (and I use that word advisedly), Domenech could not go on as coach. And yet here we are, May 2010, and the man has, somehow, hung on. God help us, or more specifically, France.

How did they get there?
You really expect me to mention that match again? Not a chance.

Who's the coach?
You may have surmised from my opening paragraph that I don't have much time for Raymond Domenech. In actual fact, nothing could be further from the truth. I find Domenech entertaining in a plethora of ways, his relationship with the media is a source of perpetual fascination, but when it comes to managing, he has made some questionable decisions. The continued exclusion of Mexes, undoubtedly the best French centre-back around, is one which I will never understand, although the word is that he will be selected for South Africa. Robert Pires is another to have suffered at the hands of Domenech, reportedly because he has the wrong star sign. There comes a point when eccentricity becomes dangerous, and Domenech crossed that line a long time ago.

Ones to watch:
Despite the ineptitude of the coach, this is a team who are, on paper, equipped to advance into the latter stages of the tournament. But we said that in 2008 didn't we? However, at the risk of sounding too pessimistic, let's take a look at what France do have.

In goal, Hugo Lloris appears to have cemented the number 1 spot, a choice which I absolutely endorse. He is an excellent prospect, and is another player who, if he performs well enough, will be chased by Europe's top clubs. Although he has yet to distinguish himself on the biggest occasions, particularly the Champions League, he already possesses an air of calm, an essential quality in goalkeepers. He'll probably need it, because his defence are going to be asking plenty of him. Patrice Evra is one of the best full-backs in the world, whilst Sagna is solid enough. But the centre-back pairing worries me, even more so if Mexes is not called up. William Gallas has never recovered his Chelsea form at Arsenal, and is an increasingly erratic presence, despite his goal threat. He will be partnered by either Boumsong or Ciani. I would personally choose the latter, as although Boumsong has improved during his time at Lyon, I still wouldn't trust him against, say, Cavani, or Forlan. Ciani has been a strong performer for Marseilles this season.

In midfield, much depends on whether Lass Diarra can recover from the malaise which has descended upon his Real Madrid form. Having enjoyed a decent start to his career there, he has lost the confidence of Pellegrini, but should be able to draw on his extensive qualities for Les Bleus. Alongside him, Toulalan is unspectacular but ever-reliable, and those two will be expected to shield the defence. Ahead of them lies the key man for France, Yoann Gourcuff. Inexplicably offloaded by Milan in the same summer that they sold Kaka, the 24-year old has emerged as one of the top attacking midfielders in Europe. Like Diarra, he lost some of his early-season form as Bordeaux faltered in the Champions League and Ligue 1, but for France, he is indispensable, particularly given the issues that currently surround Franck Ribery, on and off the pitch. Gourcuff plays either as a conventional number 10, or further forward behind the strikers. Blessed with strength, stunning individual skill and an extensive range of passing, even Domenech has been sensible enough to build the team around him. After an indifferent Euro 2008, this is his chance to show how much he has progressed.

How will they do?
Well now. For all that I've ripped into their coach, questioned their defence and generally talked them down, I fully expect France to qualify from Group A. Why, I hear you cry? Well, we've already established that the Group is a three-way tussle for two qualifying spots. With South Africa sadly last (I can't wait until they top the group, can you?) and Uruguay best placed to take one of them, it now comes down to France and Mexico. Perhaps I'm Euro-centric, maybe I want Gourcuff to spit in the eye of Silvio Berlusconi, possibly I'm looking forward to their potential round of 16 match with Argentina, but I can see France scraping through with their customary panache. And by panache, I mean a draw, goal difference, something like that. Then Argentina will embarrass them and surely, surely, surely Domenech will leave. Surely.
My prediction: Eliminated at the round of 16.

Previous previews: South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay.

Thursday, May 6, 2010

World Cup Preview no. 3: Uruguay


Between now and the opening ceremony, I'll be taking a look at the nations participating in this year's World Cup, an event which is slowly consuming me with excitement. Share my pain! Today it's my dark horse for the tournament, Uruguay.

The picture is for the ladies (hi mum), but the Uruguayan football team has traditionally had something for everyone. This tiny country, just across the River Plate from Argentina, arguably did more than anyone else to spread the gospel and discipline of football across South America. The British might have given their economic subjects the principles of the game, but it was Uruguay who first allowed players that weren't upper class and white to play it at a professional level, to represent a country that was as much theirs as it was anybody else's. For that they deserve our praise and thanks, nearly 100 years later. If only it was Uruguay who were opening the 2010 tournament with South Africa- that would have been a fitting symbol which even the cold marketing efficiency of FIFA couldn't have affected.

The golden age of Uruguayan football was a lifetime ago, beginning in 1924 with Olympic gold in Paris, and ending with the game that broke the heart of Brazil, the World Cup final of 1950. Globalisation and the growth of economic forces within the game meant that the decline of Uruguay was as inevitable as it was saddening, but thanks to those who preserve history, they will always have a special place in footballing culture.

How did they get there?
If history were the sole criteria, then Uruguay would qualify for each World Cup with ease. But this is a country of just three million people, and progress from the tough CONMEBOL group is no easy task. Uruguay missed out to Australia on penalties back in 2006, but by the time the 2010 qualifiers began, the process had been revamped, meaning that the 5th placed team from CONMEBOL would play the 4th placed team from CONCACAF. Costa Rica were a more favourable prospect than the Socceroos, and Uruguay secured a 2-1 aggregate victory.

Who's the coach?
Having been eliminated without winning a game in 2002, and having missed out altogether in 2006, Uruguay turned, as many nations do, to the safest pair of hands available, even if that meant appointing a man who had been out of management since 2002, and whose last international job had ended after the 1990 World Cup. Oscar Tabarez, or El Maestro (the Teacher) is best-known in his home country for quoting Che Guevara and Eduardo Galeano in press conferences, and his devotion to attacking football.

His main successes as a coach came in South America, where he won two Copa Libertadores, first with Penarol, and then with Boca Juniors. Italian fans may remember his disastrous spell in charge of AC Milan in 1996 (which ended after 22 games), but at home he is generally seen as the best man for the job. In a nation of football coaches, this is some accomplishment.

Ones to watch:
A glance at the Uruguay squad for their most recent friendly (a 3-1 away win against Switzerland) reinforces just how remarkable the level of talent is for such a small country. Diego Forlan, twice winner of the European Golden Boot. Ajax's Luis Suarez, the fantastically talented forward who will have his pick of Europe's elite clubs after the tournament. Nicolas Lodeiro, also of Ajax, a throwback to the elegant, diminutive number 10s of yesteryear. Palermo's Edinson Cavani, who is also being courted by a number of big Italian clubs, can only make the bench.

At the back, Diego Lugano is a muscular, powerful defender who would probably have moved to a bigger club than Fenerbahce were it not for injury. Alvaro Pereira and Maxi Pereira (no relation) are full-backs at Portugal's most successful clubs, Porto and Benfica...I'll stop listing, but to put it into perspective, Scotland has 2 million more inhabitants than Uruguay.

But my favourite Uruguayan is not a forward or a defender, rather he is a blend of traditional Uruguayan traits- power and a delicate eye for the ball. Walter Gargano has been instrumental in the evolution of Napoli over the past couple of seasons, and although he is unfussy and difficult to spot, he performs a similar task to Xavi Hernandez, acting as a metronomic force in the centre of the field, receiving the ball and distributing it with precise, perceptive passes. Uruguay's World Cup will depend on his success in influencing the game, and how well he can service the three forwards mentioned above.

How will they do?
See above, kind of. If Uruguay's star players perform to their potential, they are more than capable of topping Group A, and progressing well into the latter stages of the tournament. This is a genuinely exciting, attractive side to watch, and although they will slip under the radar of many pundits, I fully expect them to progress at least to the round of 16, where they could potentially meet their old neighbours from across the River Plate. That would be a match to savour, for the spectacle and for the history.

My prediction: Quarter-finals.

Previous Previews: South Africa, Mexico.

Wednesday, May 5, 2010

World Cup Preview no. 2: Mexico

Between now and the opening ceremony, I'll be taking a look at the nations participating in this year's World Cup, an event which is slowly consuming me with excitement. Share my pain! Continuing with Group A, today we look at the other participants in the opening match, Mexico.

I should probably wait before writing this, as I'm heading off to Wembley later this month to watch Mexico play England, and will undoubtedly have a better idea of where they're at having watched them. But we're on a strict diet of one preview a day, and Mexico were the second team to come out of the hat. What can I do? Well, I can write up my impressions after the game, duh. So look for those at the end of the month.

Mexico, like England, has always been a curious case in terms of their football culture, as unlike the nations that surround them geographically, the domestic scene has traditionally been sufficiently well-paid to ensure that most players stayed for most of their careers. But in recent times, the money hasn't been enough to retain them, and more Mexicans have made it over to Europe. But it's a slow process, and like England, the majority of this year's squad will be home-based (16 out of the 26-man longlist).

For those who are unfamiliar with the Mexican style, the legendary Sean Wheelock has described it as 'tip-tap-tip-tap-tip-tap-tip-tap.' Teams generally play at a fairly sedate pace, building from the defence, with emphasis on short passes and counter-attack. It's a combination of Serie A pace and La Liga technical emphasis, and is usually easy on the eye. Be interesting to see how they manage on the Wembley pitch.

How did they get there?
Another curious feature of Mexican football is their federation-straddling antics. Their elite clubs play in the South American Copa Libertadores, the national team is 'invited' to participate in the Copa America, yet they are members of CONCACAF, send clubs to the CONCACAF Champions League, and qualify for the World Cup through the significantly easier path of said federation.

Whilst this could be viewed as an advantage (this is their fifth consecutive appearance), the low level of competition means that (like England) qualification has often been taken for granted, and both players and management have been guilty of sleepwalking through the process. I would argue that the higher level of competition available in South America would improve the Mexican side, a view which is slowly gaining traction amongst the Mexican football media. At any rate, Mexico scraped through qualification this time, eventually finishing second to the USA, but not before some managerial changes were necessitated.

Who's the coach?
Like England, Mexico has in recent times undergone a crisis of identity in terms of their national team. Having stoically endured the exodus of players to Europe, the final straw for many came when Sven Goran Eriksson was hired as coach, following the sacking of Hugo Sanchez. Eriksson flirted with disaster, and only goal difference saved Mexico from the ignominy of elimination in the first round of the CONCACAF qualifying campaign. His failure was seen as vindication for those who had argued that the national team should be managed by Mexicans, and Mexicans only. Perhaps they should have hired Fabio Capello.

Having burned their bridges with Sanchez, FEMEXFUT was left with a conundrum. They knew the new manager had to be Mexican, but a Steve McClaren figure was not desirable, with World Cup qualification hanging in the balance. Luckily, Atletico Madrid made the decision easy for them, when they fired Javier Aguirre. Having managed the side to the round of 16 in the 2002 tournament, and in need of a more sedate post after the madhouse that is Atleti, he represented the popular choice, and quickly steadied the qualifying ship, buoyed by a morale-boosting 5-0 away win over the eternal rivals, America, to claim the Gold Cup.

Known as a combative midfielder during his playing career, the chain-smoking Aguirre's main achievement so far has been the return of pride and passion to the national team, which was viewed as an undesirable added pressure during the brief Eriksson reign. Mexico might not possess the depth in talent that they did during the mid-1990's, but under Aguirre they are organised and committed, like...never mind.

Ones to watch:
Aguirre's other great achievement has been the rehabilitation of Cuauhtomec Blanco, undoubtedly one of the most talented players not to perform at the highest level in Europe. At 37, he is slower than most, but still possesses a deadly shot and piercing vision. Along with Rafeal Marquez and Gerardo Torrado, Blanco forms the experienced spine of the side, and is still capable of moments of genius.

Yet another achievement that Aguirre should be applauded for is his blend of experience and promising youth players, a blend which can be seen throughout the side. Goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa is on the verge of a move to Europe, as is centre-back Efrain Juarez. Should they perform in South Africa, expect to see offers from La Liga come in over the summer. Further up the field, the dos Santos brothers (Giovanni of Tottenham and Jonathan of Barcelona) are far more promising performers in the national colours than at club level, with Giovanni in particular out to prove a point to his current employers, who have never given him an extended run in the side. His younger brother won't start, but is of the same mould- a slight, tricky midfielder, with a deft touch, and game-changing ability. Much will also depend on Carlos Vela, who has yet to prove himself at Arsenal.

How will they do?
Difficult to say. Although it hasn't been mentioned as one, Group A is in my opinion one of the trickier groups in this year's tournament, and results against South Africa could well decide which of France, Uruguay and Mexico progress to the round of 16. As such, the pressure is on Mexico to lay down a marker, and not allow the occasion to get the better of them.

Recent friendlies haven't been that encouraging, with last month's 0-0 home draw with Iceland a low point. As I said, I'll know more after I see them in action, but for now, Mexico look to be the 3rd team in this group. See the rest of this week's previews for reasons why.

My prediction: Eliminated in the group stage.

Previous Previews: South Africa

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

World Cup Preview no. 1: South Africa

Between now and the opening ceremony, I'll be taking a look at the nations participating in this year's World Cup, an event which is slowly consuming me with excitement. Share my pain! We'll start with Group A, and the host nation, South Africa.

It's never easy being the hosts. As well as all the off-field logistical distractions, the pressure from the home fans is naturally overwhelming. The unlikely statistic that hangs over the heads of the Bafana Bafana is one that'll be wheeled out innumerable times over the coming months, but it's worth repeating: no host nation has ever failed to progress into the knockout stages. It's a remarkable quirk in a sport that is becoming more precise and scientific as the years pass, and the conventional wisdom is that 'the host streak' will be ended this year.

I don't doubt it, but in the Coca-Cola sponsored spirit of optimism, there might be more to South Africa than meets the eye...

How did they get there?
Pretty easily, because being the hosts, they were handed a spot. This is handy, because in truth the current group of players probably wouldn't have made it through an African section which was one of the most competitive, with the possible exception of South America. When you look at some of the teams who didn't qualify, including the African champions Egypt, as well as strong teams from Mali and Gabon, you get an idea of how far African football has progressed in a relatively short space of time. But that's another story, and for the purposes of this preview, South Africa are in, and that's all you need to know (as Barry the Baptist once said).

Who's the coach?
The fact that South Africa didn't have to endure the qualification process means that they had ample time to concentrate on that other great preserve of football teams- a spot of good old-fashioned infighting. Having enjoyed a Confederations Cup campaign which went above and beyond everyone's wildest expectations, the highs soon turned into crushing lows, as they slumped to 8 defeats in their next 9 games, and 90th place in the FIFA rankings. This led to the sacking of Joel Santana, which as well as causing the normal disruption to preparations, denied the tournament the pleasure of arguably the greatest English interviews ever to grace the game.

But having removed a Brazilian, they opted not to go with one of their own (as many commentators expected), but to return to the man who arguably has more World Cup experience than any other active coach, the great Carlos Alberto Parreira. Best known for his two stints in charge of Brazil (the victorious 1994 and ignominious 2006 tournaments), he has also managed Kuwait (1982), the UAE (1990) and Saudi Arabia (1998). It is to the latter three that we should be looking to gauge our expectations- none of them won a single game, and were thoroughly unremarkable in their defensiveness. Despite his less than brilliant recent record, the name Parreira should still inspire a certain level of confidence, but naturally much will depend on the performances of his star players.

Ones to watch:
Steven Pienaar and Benni McCarthy are familiar names to Premier League viewers, and it appears that both will be in the squad, despite playing no part in the friendlies which have preceded the tournament. This is a fact of life for the smaller footballing nations, and Parreira has accepted it, saying that 'the most important thing is to identify a group of players from the local squad, and when the overseas-based players are available, blend the two groups together.

Whilst Pienaar is certain to start, McCarthy's fate is still somewhat unclear. Out of favour for the last couple of seasons, he played no part in the Confederations Cup, and the outcome of that tournament suggests that South Africa can perhaps do without their most successful player. However, subsequent games have undermined this belief, as they were characterised by a chronic lack of goals, including a 0-0 draw against North Korea. At home. Parreira has described McCarthy as the best finisher in South Africa, and has stated that 'we cannot ignore him.'

How will they do?
Pienaar and McCarthy aside, the rest of the squad consists of players plying their trade in Europe's lower leagues, or on the domestic scene. The recent 2-0 win over Jamaica (using an entirely home-based squad) has provided some cause for optimism, but it's still difficult to see South Africa avoiding that dreaded tag of the first hosts to fall at the first hurdle. Stranger things have happened, but not in this preview they haven't.
My prediction: Eliminated in the group stage.