For the purposes of this post, it may help to picture the football season as a piece of meat- a freshly killed antelope if you will. This antelope carcass has lain just out of reach for nigh on 9 months, and now, finally, the hyenas and vultures have located the source of that ever-increasing stink. It's feeding time. But as with any group, this one has a hierarchy. Some get the prime cuts- the league title, Champions League qualification, goal of the season awards. But there are some who are left on the outside, forced to fight over the gristle and cartilage of parachute payments, relegation, and (best swallowed without chewing) goal difference margins. Unappetising stuff, I'm sure you'll agree. But hey, you gotta eat right? So come what may (calendar-related pun alert), year after year teams scrap over the merest morsels, and for what? Nothing more than the right to do it again next year. This post is for them.
In Serie A, the bottom 3 has remained fairly static for the last couple of months- Atalanta (34 points), Siena (30), and Livorno (26). All 3 have changed managers, formations, you name it, and none of it has done much good. They've been joined in their struggle at various times by Bologna (36), Lazio (37) and Udinese (39), but now, with 4 matches left, it's getting to that point where nothing less than a miracle is going to save the bottom 2. Indeed, defeat for Livorno and Siena combined with a Bologna victory (they are at home to an inconsistent Parma), will send the 2 provincial sides back to the anonymity of Serie B. Sad, but in truth they were condemned from the summer: Siena had sold their best players in Kharja and Zuniga, whilst Livorno had lost Diamanti over the summer, and Candreva followed him out the door in January. No money, few fans, and not a lot of hope either.
But Atalanta, who seemed dead for so long, have sprung into life in recent weeks. 3 wins in their last 5, and one of the defeats came at the hands of Roma, where they could have won but for wasteful finishing. They couldn't have done more. Yet, as it often the way when a team goes on a winning streak, events above have conspired against them. Catania, Udinese and Lazio, all of whom had previously shown little sign of putting anything resembling a run together, began to pick up points, 8 from their last 15 in fact. This must have been agonising watching for the Bergamo side, but hope remains, in the form of Bologna. For although I mentioned their home game, it is by no means a home banker. In fact, they haven't won at the Dall'Ara since March 7th, and have taken 1 point from the last 15. Add the spice of a provincial derby into the mix, and Atalanta know that if Parma can do them a favour, they'll survive until next week at least. Who do they play? Why, Bologna of course.
Whilst the movers and shakers are well-established in Italy, the same cannot be said for Spain, where everyone from Getafe downwards can still mathematically be grouped into the relegation equation. To illustrate the size of these gaps, Getafe are 8th, with 47 points. 18th is currently occupied by Tenerife, on 32. Of course, the teams involved are playing each other during the last 5 rounds, so I'm going to make a sweeping statement (it's almost as if I want to look stupid when it's disproved) and say that the top half of the table are safe. Which leaves us with 10 teams, separated by 11 points, with 5 games remaining. Remember that episode of the Sopranos when Tony is trying to decide whether to whack Pussy, and can't resolve the conflicts between his business and his friendship? It's called 'Nobody Knows Anything.' Well, it's kind of like that.
Personally, I'd like to see Tenerife stay up. For all that they have been awful for most of the season, they have a great stadium with great fans, and the top-scoring Spaniard (David Villa aside) in Nino. They go to Atletico tomorrow, and given Atleti's league form (3 points from 15), I wouldn't be surprised if Tenerife got something from that game. 1 point above them are Malaga, a team so depressingly negative that I'm not even going to give them blog space. They are away to Mallorca, who are still fighting for a European place, so they should lose. As should Zaragoza, who seemed out of it a few weeks ago but could find themselves in the bottom 3 should results go against them. They face Real at home.
Below Tenerife are Real Valladolid and Xerez, who face tough away trips to Sporting and Barcelona respectively. Defeat combined with a win for Tenerife would cut them adrift in terms of points, but of the sides in the bottom half they actually have the best form. Like I said, nobody knows anything.
In Portugal, things are relatively clear with 3 games remaining, at least compared to the bilgewater of La Liga. Belenenses, spectacularly awful all season, have rallied in recent weeks and taken 6 from 15 (this is rallying for them, ok), but it's all far too late, and with a paltry 17 points, they are down. Perhaps if they'd played Freddy Adu a bit more...nah. The 2nd relegation spot (there are only 2 in Portugal) is occupied by Leixoes, who are on 21 points, 4 behind Olhanense and Vitoria Setubal. The former are away to Benfica this weekend, whilst the latter are at home to a Porto side who still have designs on 2nd place. So, no points there. By contrast, Leixoes host Academica, who themselves are only on 26 points. If ever a game was there to be won, this is it. Leixoes are awful but Academica might be worse, with their last away win coming in mid-February. Should these 3 matches go with form, it sets everything up rather nicely for next Sunday, where Leixoes travel to...Olhanense.
Phew. Congratulations if you've made it all the way through that, consider yourself enlightened about the seedier side of Europe's top leagues. And Portugal. Just kidding Liga Sagres, you know I love you. Anyway, here's your reward for reading this far...predictions! So you can laugh at me in a few weeks.
Italy- Bologna, Siena, Livorno.
Spain- Real Valladolid, Malaga, Xerez.
Portugal- Leixoes, Belenenses.
So, I've nailed my colours to the relegation mast...enjoy the run-ins, and may your team be comfortably ensconced in mid-table mediocrity.
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