super bowl XLIV

sometimes, it pays to take some chances.

one of the things that i love the most about american football is that, more than a lot of other sports, it's genuinely one where the brute force of athletic strength and the geeky, obsessive mind of a statistician not only co-exist, but compliment each other. nowhere was this more clear than on sunday's super bowl XLIV, which saw the new orleans saints defeat the indianapolis colts 31-17.

despite the outstanding performances from the star saints- drew brees, bush, and porter all played superbly, i was most impressed with the percentage risk-taking from sean payton and his defensive coordinator gregg williams. it helps when you know that you've sent a quality team out onto the field, but it still takes a lot of mental calmness to go for a 4th and goal, whilst only down 10-3, with time enough left to lose possesion and concede another score before halftime. payton (correctly) figured his team had a decent chance of getting the touchdown, or at least stopping the colts moving the ball too far back up the field. he was right.

some pundits have described this as a gamble, but i disagree. he showed confidence in both his offence and his defence, and was perceptive enough to see that the colts weren't in shape to produce their usual pre-halftime scoring blitz. he saw the situation as a win-win, and his confidence must have transmitted to his players. the same can be said for the decision to begin the second half with an onside kick by a player who'd never attempted one in a game before. percentages wise, you know that instinct will take over, and that your opposition will not be expecting it. it was a great call from payton, in a game full of them.

as far as the colts go, there was a flatness in their performance after a fabulous start. jim caldwell must have been elated up until midway through the 2nd quarter, but then an inertia gripped his team. this is odd, as the thing that brought the colts to the dance was their ability to grind out victories, scoring in bursts and relying on the metronomic arm of peyton manning. i've read some pieces criticising caldwell for not intervening earlier, but i doubt that even he was expecting the level of fightback that the saints staged. of course, the other point to make is that he usually has manning to interfere for him. the guy is one of the greatest ever, but on sunday, he was good, but rarely great. fact is, what i (and i suspect a lot of other people) will remember about this super bowl is his interception that led to the decisive touchdown. that's slightly unfair, because his team (and the saints) gave him very few chances to exert an influence...

but there it is. caldwell, manning, and the colts will be back. the saints? i'm not so sure.