champions league preview, part deux

like him or not, the man is impossible to ignore. which is, as even the least perceptive members of the press are capable of observing, precisely the point.

in recent weeks, internazionale have displayed all the hallmarks of a mourinho side building up towards a big match- indifferent domestic form (3 draws in a row), a noticeable lack of discipline (2 deserved red cards against sampdoria), and a willingness to hide behind the media frenzy which swirls around their coach. the buzzwords are focus, motivation, and optimism, whilst the players have been careful to compliment the talents of their opponents.

all very nice, but there is, of course, the elephant in the room. no one cares what the players are saying, particularly on the italian side of things. for a man who boycotted the media after sunday's 0-0 draw with samp, mourinho has been bellowing at the top of his lungs for a while now, and he is building to a crescendo. for a man who consistently professes his distaste for the italian way of doing things, he fits very, very snugly into the italian footballing paradigm. to borrow an analogy from pro wrestling, mourinho is the heel that everyone loves to boo. the italian footballing scene would be lost, directionless, without him to rail against, and vice versa. and make no mistake, everyone knows it. it's just that no one says it. except, of course, mourinho himself. long may he reign.

as for the match...

even a stopped clock tells the right time twice a day. despite the current trend for bashing serie a, it's impossible to avoid the sense that these are 2 teams built upon very similar foundations. goalscoring centre-backs, maurading full-backs, an abundance of ball-playing midfielders, and powerful dynamic centre-forwards are the order of the day in this one. the key contest will undoubtedly be juliano belletti, who looks set to play as an auxiliary left-back, against his compatriot maicon. the brazil international is key for club and country, and although he has less facets to his game than some, his explosive runs are capable of exposing chelsea in the absence of ashley cole. elsewhere on the field, i'm really looking forward to watching how lucio deals with didier drogba, in a preview of the world cup group stages. these defensive contests will likely provide the tipping point over 2 legs, as the midfield will undoubtedly be swamped. it's the tie of the round, but don't except goals.

cska moscow v sevilla.
spain's best team in the group stages have suffered a severe dip in form since the turn of the year, but, like bordeaux, could go far in this competition, if they are handed a favourable draw. and it will be a draw that they'll be looking for tonight. much like barcelona, sevilla will undoubtedly be happy with an away goal in what will be an intimidating (not to mention fucking freezing) environment. I didn't expect cska to qualify from the group stages, and they certainly aren't the side that won the UEFA cup in 2004, but sevilla still have to keep this one close, as their home form is no longer the comfort of a few months ago.

elsewhere, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention the 2 important games in serie a tonight, which are kicking off at 5.30pm, an intelligent piece of scheduling, and one which I am infinitely grateful for...

ac milan travel to fiorentina, for a game in hand which is of crucial importance to both sides. a win would take milan back above roma into second place, whilst cesare prandelli will be desperate to stay in touch with the chasing pack in a race for european spots which is proving to be excitingly unpredictable- there are just 3 points between 4th and 9th place.

however, I'll be watching udinese v cagliari. an away win for the sardinians would put them into 4th, a prospect which was unthinkable before the arrival of max allegri. for a provincial club, whose attendances would shame most championship teams, it would be a truly remarkable achievement. the overall standard in serie a may have dropped, but if that means teams like cagliari can have seasons like this one, I'm not too bothered. if they win, I'll expand on this further very soon.

enjoy the games.

champions league preview- tuesday

after an enjoyable opening week to the new, extended champions league knockout phase, fans and broadcasters alike will be hoping for more of the same on tuesday and wednesday night. the tie of the round is happening on wednesday, but before we get ahead of ourselves...

olympiakos v bordeaux, 7.45pm tuesday.
perhaps not surprisingly, this tie has been given the least attention of the 8 second-round matches from the UK-based press, but you can bet that the rest of the teams will be paying close attention, particularly to bordeaux. laurent blanc caught the attention of europe when he broke the dominance of lyon in ligue 1 last season, and there's no sign of fatigue- bordeaux remain 3 points clear domestically, and look most likely to break the hold of the english and spanish clubs on the champions league. led by the outstanding yoann gourcuff (inexplicably let go by ac milan) and the premier league-bound chamakh, they'd trouble anyone on their day. with a kind quarter-final draw, they look more than capable of emulating psv eindhoven's unlikely run to the semis a few years back.
i'm assuming that olympiakos will fall, but much depends on this tie in athens. sky's coverage will no doubt make much of matt derbyshire, who has been a hit since signing from blackburn, but olympiakos are much more dependant on their promising forward mitroglou, who has the pace to worry bordeaux's centre-halves.

stuttgart v barcelona, 7.45pm tuesday.
when the draw was made, most predicted walkover for barcelona. they still should go through, but don't be surprised if stuttgart enter the 2nd leg with a narrow advantage. coming off a 5-1 victory over cologne at the weekend, stuttgart have recently been performing better than their league position (9th) suggests.
of more importance to this tie is the ongoing injury issues (i refuse to use the word crisis, the world needs some fucking perspective) hampering barcelona. seydou keita and eric abidal aren't the first names everyone thinks of when they think of barca, but they are crucial counterweights to the gung-ho forward play of andres iniesta and dani alves. the loss of those 2, and possibly xavias well, will undoubtedly affect barca's ability to build in their gradual way, and dictate the rhythm of the game. guardiola won't admit it, especially after their dominant display against racing this weekend, but right now, he'd probably take a draw.

enjoy the games, and look for my wednesday preview in the next couple of days.

weekend picks

apologies for the lateness of this post, but i've been feeling slightly under the weather today. i've reached that sad point where 4 beers gives me a headache the next morning. i am now officially old.

on to happier thoughts, and a stacked weekend...

tour du haut var, saturday/sunday.

this starts in about 15 minutes, so i'll have to make it quick. one of my favourite early-season french races, based in provence, and always conducive to some attacking riding over 2 days of climby, demanding racing. if you're a casual cycling fan, then this is the type of event that usually provides a really good advert for the sport. the weather has been terrible in france this week, which can only make the racing less predictable. i'm stoked, cycling is here again!

UFC 110, 3am sunday.

although this isn't the best card, i'm still looking forward to UFC 110, simply for the implications that it could have for the heavyweight division going forward. the winner of the main event, which sees rising star cain velasquez squaring off against the veteran anthony 'big nog' nogueira, will, providing they aren't subject to an injury suspension, be the first in line to have a crack at the returning brock lesnar, possibly in july. this should be a real test for velasquez, who has stormed through his matches so far.

although he's never been at his best in the UFC, wanderlei silva (pictured) is a fan favourite, and with good reason. but he needs a win. having spent a few years as an undersized light-heavyweight, he needs to reinvent himself as a larger middleweight, and his contest with the trash-talking brit michael bisping will hopefully mark the start of better times for a true legend of MMA.

you can get a more in-depth preview here.

fc porto v sporting braga, 8.15pm sunday.

this is being billed as the last chance for porto to remain relevant in the race for the liga sagres title. i happen to think that's stretching it a bit, but it's certainly a very important match for both clubs. more than anything, an away win against the champions for the last 4 seasons would really reinforce how serious braga are about breaking the dominance of the bgig 3 in portugal. these games are often tense, nervous affairs, but in terms of importance, this is one not to be missed.

champions league preview, part deux

it could have all been so different.

before i take a look at tonight, it seems a bit foolish to start anywhere else other than the san siro. it wasn't a classic in terms of quality- both teams were guilty of wasting chances and defending poorly, and the technical level (ronaldinho and rooney apart) was average, but in terms of excitement, milan-united matched the milan-madrid humdinger at the bernabeu.

i'm quite pleased that i said the key for milan lay in the form of ronaldinho, and their ability to stop wayne rooney. the brazilian was at his menacing best, and his tormenting of rio ferdinand must have given fabio capello something to think about. ferdinand was flat-footed and unresponsive, and the fact that rafael was united's best defender on the night says a lot. had milan (specifically huntelaar) taken their chances, united would have gone into half-time 2-0 down, and perhaps they wouldn't have come away with an aggregate lead, and 3 away goals.

but then again, maybe they would, because rooney eventually, inevitably, managed to expose those oft-mentioned weaknesses in the aging milan back line. nesta managed to contain him for an hour, but putting valencia up against favalli was a shrewd move by ferguson, as nesta was forced into mutiple evasive covering actions. rooney was clinical in his finishing, but my abiding impression of the overall united performance is a reinforced certainty of how fucked they'd be if he got injured. this is not the united of 07-08.

elsewhere, lyon will be quietly pleased with their 1-0 home win over madrid. the main aim for claude puel was not to concede, and the second leg should be a more open, attacking affair.

onto tonight...

bayern munich v fiorentina.
what a difference a new year makes. when the group stages ended, bayern had scraped through, louis van gaal was hanging on by a thread, and rib-rob was a distant dream. fiorentina were buoyed by a victory over liverpool, and eyeing a spot in the last 8.
now things look very different. bayern are 2nd in the bundesliga only on goal difference, and rib-rob (although rib may be absent tonight) has flowered in time to save van gaal. fiorentina are missing their 3 best players (mutu, gamberini and gilardino) to suspension, injury and loss of form, and are looking vulnerable at the back, having inexplicably sold dario dainelli to genoa in january. their disjointed defeat against sampdoria last sunday saw pazzini, another discarded player, score the winner.
if you asked me which manager would remain in his job the longest in december, i would have said prandelli, without hesitation. now, cesare is probably hoping those rumours of juve interest are true...

fc porto v arsenal.
if there's no better time to be playing arsenal, there probably isn't a much better time to be playing porto either. a limp draw at leixoes last weekend is at least as worrying as arsenal's recent losses against chelsea and stoke, and both jesualdo ferriera and wenger need a win here.
porto will welcome the return of hulk (his indefinite ban doesn't extend to the champions league- don't ask), but more significant could be the loss of arshavin. fabregas might enjoy the space he's given when the russian doesn't start in front of him, but the rest of the midfield looks susceptible, in my opinion, to the bullying tactics of the returning raul meireles, another boost for porto.
ferreira has already stated that keeping a clean sheet is a priority, so expect his team to rely on the distribution and set-piece prowess of captain bruno alves, who will surely be relishing the thought of being marked by midgets like gael clichy...

enjoy the games.

champions league preview

it's back, and this time, it's spread over 4 weeks! i never understood why an organisation which is so driven by commercial considerations allowed its flagship club competition to be played under conditions which meant that fans couldn't see every game involving teams from their country. and pay for the privilege. inevitably, that has now been rectified.

i've always found the champions league vaguely troubling. on the one hand, it is another incorrectly titled, money-driven competition designed to consume the minds (and provide their owners with some new things to buy) of as many people as is televisually possible. this moral side of me, which disapproves of unregulated capitalism, reads the guardian, and is nice to animals, often finds voice in the musings of the incomparable david conn.

on the other hand, there's a voice (currently rising to a crescendo) that says fuck it, i'd rather have UEFA in charge than someone like richard scudamore. at least platini was beautiful on the pitch. and let's face it, 4 weeks of midweek european football is a manna from heaven for a loser like me. this way, i stand a pretty good chance of seeing every game. and i can drink heineken while i do it. fucking brilliant.

moral quandaries aside, here's a little look at this week's 1st legs...

ac milan v manchester united:

if ac milan are the foremost example of a traditional european institution in decline, then i would be tempted to argue that manchester united aren't as far behind as some people would like to believe. for iffy backup goalkeepers, read ben foster. for nesta, read an increasingly creaky ferdinand. for gattuso and ambrosini, read scholes and giggs. for huntelaar, read berbatov (both are overrated and overpriced).

team-by-team comparisons are weak, but i think you get the point- these teams aren't so different in a lot of ways, at least on paper. in pato, milan have a returning forward capable of getting at evans and ferdinand. ronaldinho's recent (in terms of the last month or so, we live in a 24 hour news cycle bitches) decline has been exaggerated, and he'll be aided by the return of his compatriot. those 2, along with thiago silva and nesta, are key for milan. if they stop rooney, and get at united early, it'll be a close one.

olympique lyon v real madrid

for all the money these 2 clubs spent over the summer, neither one has played exponentially better this season. indeed, lyon have entered something of a transitional phase following the departures of benzema and juninho. miralem pjanic looks capable of filling the shoes of the brazilian in time, but he's still young. a lot will rest on the form of lisandro, who is one of my favourite players to watch. quick, powerful, and inexplicably not in the picture for the argentina world cup squad, he can win this tie for lyon.

but madrid, for all their millions, have their own argentine striker to rely on, gonzalo higuain. i've been remiss in not blogging about his progress, because, along with rooney, he's the best centre-forward in europe at the moment. madrid are being talked up in spain as winners of the champions league, but don't be surprised if this one is closer than expected.

enjoy the games, and look for my wednesday preview sometime on, er, wednesday.

weekend picks

the most apprehensive managerial unveiling face ever? you decide. but more about him later, onto my choices for this weekend.

roma v palermo, serie a, 5pm saturday.

two teams that started poorly, changed their manager, then started to play better. an oversimplified argument? undoubtedly, but it's the one that every italian journalist, and, it would appear, chairman subscribes to. serie has had 14 managerial changes this season, and the only surprise is that palermo president maurizio zamparini (you wouldn't like him when he's angry) has only pulled the trigger once, on walter zenga. perhaps that's because the replacement, delio rossi, has done so well that even zampa can't find any reason to fire him. yet. i say yet because palermo's away form has been fairly dismal this season, and if they don't qualify for europe, there will probably be another change.

this will be a good test for them, and it will, fitness permitting, pit the old against the new, the lazy against the lazier, red against pink- francesco totti against javier pastore, two of the best creative players in the league. i'm fully aware that i'm choosing this game on the strength of 2 players, but i promise it should be quite a good game. plus, no totti no party.

vasco da gama v fluminense, campeonato carioca, 8.30 pm sunday.

this is undoubtedly the more attractive of the two semi-finals in the opening competition of the rio state championship, the taca guanabara. if the notion of a state championship confuses you, i recommend perusing this excellent guide before you read on.

vasco have been the team of the tournament thus far, boasting the best goal difference and the best performance, a 6-0 hammering of botafogo. spearheaded by ex-bremen playmaker carlos alberto, and wunderkid philippe coutinho (who's heading to internazionale in june), they're doing that thing which is unique to south american clubs- getting relegated only to return rejuvenated. such is the banana republic economics of brazilian football.

flu have also been impressive following their impressive escape from relegation in the campeonato brasilerao 2009, and are also led by a forward exiled from european football, despite clearly being talented enough to play there- fred, once of lyon. but the player to watch (if he's fit) is maicon, who is a promising winger with, as andy gray would say, frightening pace. he's tricky, still raw enough to be unpredictable, and probably playing his last campeonato carioca.

it's hard to call a winner here, but it's going to be good. as with most brazilian games, justin tv is the place to start.

atletico madrid v barcelona, primera division, 8pm sunday.

er, do i need to explain this one? the best team in the world facing the most comical? this game has produced more goals than any other la liga fixture in recent years, and it really isn't hard to work out why.

somehow, atletico have managed to get themselves into the final of the copa del rey (if you think the fa cup is useless...), which is threatening to save their disastrous season. especially seeing as the most likely venue is...the bernabeu. perhaps quique will crack a smile if they win there, i know i will. but i'm pretty sure he won't be smiling at 10pm tomorrow.

super bowl XLIV

sometimes, it pays to take some chances.

one of the things that i love the most about american football is that, more than a lot of other sports, it's genuinely one where the brute force of athletic strength and the geeky, obsessive mind of a statistician not only co-exist, but compliment each other. nowhere was this more clear than on sunday's super bowl XLIV, which saw the new orleans saints defeat the indianapolis colts 31-17.

despite the outstanding performances from the star saints- drew brees, bush, and porter all played superbly, i was most impressed with the percentage risk-taking from sean payton and his defensive coordinator gregg williams. it helps when you know that you've sent a quality team out onto the field, but it still takes a lot of mental calmness to go for a 4th and goal, whilst only down 10-3, with time enough left to lose possesion and concede another score before halftime. payton (correctly) figured his team had a decent chance of getting the touchdown, or at least stopping the colts moving the ball too far back up the field. he was right.

some pundits have described this as a gamble, but i disagree. he showed confidence in both his offence and his defence, and was perceptive enough to see that the colts weren't in shape to produce their usual pre-halftime scoring blitz. he saw the situation as a win-win, and his confidence must have transmitted to his players. the same can be said for the decision to begin the second half with an onside kick by a player who'd never attempted one in a game before. percentages wise, you know that instinct will take over, and that your opposition will not be expecting it. it was a great call from payton, in a game full of them.

as far as the colts go, there was a flatness in their performance after a fabulous start. jim caldwell must have been elated up until midway through the 2nd quarter, but then an inertia gripped his team. this is odd, as the thing that brought the colts to the dance was their ability to grind out victories, scoring in bursts and relying on the metronomic arm of peyton manning. i've read some pieces criticising caldwell for not intervening earlier, but i doubt that even he was expecting the level of fightback that the saints staged. of course, the other point to make is that he usually has manning to interfere for him. the guy is one of the greatest ever, but on sunday, he was good, but rarely great. fact is, what i (and i suspect a lot of other people) will remember about this super bowl is his interception that led to the decisive touchdown. that's slightly unfair, because his team (and the saints) gave him very few chances to exert an influence...

but there it is. caldwell, manning, and the colts will be back. the saints? i'm not so sure.

edwin valero

remind you of anyone? the wild look, an identity tattooed onto his body, the latin american blend of politics and pugilism (that's hugo chavez on the venezuelan flag)- like the guys on showtime, who aired his first bout on american tv this weekend, i watched edwin valero dismantle the promising mexican antonio demarco, and couldn't help but think of manny pacquiao. he's not there yet, but this little venezuelan southpaw is my tip to be the next superstar of boxing.

in an era where the money men can't even agree on the fight that everyone and their dog wants to see, an era where the sport is running, in many places, on the memory of the glory days, and is being soundly beaten by the UFC, you need more than a decent record to become a star, but it's worth looking at edwin valero's resume. WBC lightweight champion, and former super-featherweight title holder (he gave it up in april in order to concentrate on the 135-pound class), his record reads 27-0, with 26 of those coming by knockout, and he's only actually fought for 66 rounds- his first 18 wins came in the opening 3 minutes. granted, most of those victories have been against inadequate opposition, but there's something about this guy. he uses the same weapons as pacquiao did in the early days- a lot of jabs and straight lefts, and although his defence is often cited as his main weakness, it's not been needed thus far, as 'dinamita' simply knocks out everyone he fights.

impressive, but a number of people thought that he might have trouble with demarco, who is a calm, fluid young fighter. but valero made him look like a novice, and by the time he failed to answer the bell for the 10th, i'd been willing for the end since the 6th. oh, and valero fought from the 2nd with a deep gash on his forehead, which had come from an accidental elbow. fights have been stopped for less. he's aggressive, quick, and great to watch. his family have received death threats thanks to his outspoken support for chavez, but his people from the barrios of caracas love him for it. he's a classic boxing hero in waiting.

problem is, he hasn't got a license to fight in the US, after failing a brain scan- he was seriously injured in a 2001 motorcycle accident. and then there's the conviction for drink-driving, which he picked up whilst bob arum (yes, the same bob arum who promotes pacquiao) was trying to get him on the undercard of the stillborn pacquiao-mayweather fight. this will make getting a visa to enter the US tricky. as well as pacquiao, he reminds me of diego maradona, with a personality as volatile as his politics.

he's also running out of people to fight. there's little to be gained by continuing to crush men of straw, as much as the people want to see it. the money men in america will find a way to get him in, but with juan manuel marquez apparently moving up a weight to fight amir khan or ricky hatton, that contest (one which i would love to see) appears to be a non-starter. but whoever it is, i'll be glued.

i'm still digesting the super bowl, look for my thoughts on that later this week.

sometimes one of those weekends come along where the old cliche comes out- there simply aren't enough hours in the day. consider this list: fiorentina v roma, sao paulo v santos, chelsea v arsenal, the final stages of the etoile des besseges, UFC 109, edwin valero v antonio demarco...damn. any other weekend, these would be demanding my undivided attention, and they'd probably get it. but it's super bowl weekend.

the internet is awash with previews, some good, some not so good. the sheer volume of media attention this thing creates never ceases to amaze me, so i've decided not to add to the mix. instead, i'm going to watch, and then reflect. enjoy.

and if you're still not convinced by the nfl, the above list should see you right.