no sleep till miami

after a strong performance in the wildcard round, my playoff prediction success rate took a bit of a battering (it's now a mediocre 4-4) in last weekend's divisional round, thanks in no small part to that man above. the saints handed the cardinals their asses on a plate, with bush putting in one of the best displays of individual brilliance i have seen in the nfl, including a superb 83 yard touchdown return. he, along with a rejuvinated drew brees, were the difference against a cardinals team who were clearly running on empty.

the top seeds from the AFC were the indianapolis colts, and whilst they weren't as spectacular as the saints, they too advanced with relative ease against baltimore. ray rice couldn't repeat his heroics from the new england game, peyton manning took his chances when they came, and that was that.

the two real surprises came from teams who, seemingly, were putting a real run together. the cowboys, who were so impressive against philly, were abject against a minnesota side who really pulled it out of the bag. i'll be honest, i didn't see it coming. minnesota hadn't played well since late november and the cowboys were on a hot streak. but they never really got going, and brett favre continues to defy the critics (myself included), and play like a man aged 25, not 41.

in hindsight, the vikings turning over the cowboys at home doesn't seem like such a shock, especially with what followed last sunday evening. for the jets, a team with, as so confidently pointed out, "no real plan b" to go and beat san diego on the road defies belief. i wonder what odds you would have got on the jets reaching the AFC championship game back in september? someone somewhere must have won a shitload of cash, because it turns out the old adage is still true in the nfl: defence and simple pass rush plays win games.

onto the conference championship matchups...

indianapolis colts v new york jets (AFC), sunday 7.30pm.

it's tempting, really, really tempting to pick the jets in this one. rex ryan has produced something quite remarkable in the past couple of months, despite the large amount of luck they've enjoyed. it's worth noting that if it weren't for the colts deciding to rest their starters for their game against the jets at the back end of the regular season, the jets wouldn't have made the playoffs at all. the jets won that matchup, and have been flying in the face of those who say the nfl is a passing league now, and that you need more than one gameplan. they have no fear on the road, they are on the run of their lives, and they would be "shocked" if they didn't win this one. but, as mike carlson points out in his excellent preview, believing you can do it ain't the same as doing it.

my pick- colts.

new orleans saints v minnesota vikings (NFC), sunday 11.30pm.

the saints have recovered from their stuttering end of season form, and against the cardinals, looked like a team capable of winning the super bowl. the vikings have done much the same, and did something few expected them to do when they humbled a cowboys team which i predicted were heading to miami. i have a feeling that the saints will be a step too far for them, but then that's what i said about the jets at san diego. in reggie bush and adrian peterson, the saints and the vikings have 2 of the most explosive runners in the league, and both quarterbacks are outstanding examples of how to direct and influence plays, with or without the ball. like neil reynolds says, whoever wins this one will produce this year's super bowl cinderella story. it'll be high scoring, but the saints look like a franchise headed for their first super bowl.

my pick- saints, with the help of another stellar game from reggie 'the bush it's ok to like' bush.

so, that'd give us the first super bowl between the 2 top seeds since 1994, when dallas and (no laughing at the back) buffalo met. and in truth it would be a fitting matchup, as for much of the season they were head and shoulders above the rest. but we're getting ahead of ourselves. enjoy the games, and if you're wondering about the clash between the milan derby and colts-jets game, go for the milan derby. the colts won't start scoring till the 2nd half.