Monday, May 17, 2010

World Cup Preview no. 10: USA

Between now and the opening ceremony, I'll be taking a look at the nations participating in this year's World Cup, an event which is slowly consuming me with excitement. Share my pain! Today we look at England's first opponents, or as I like to call them, The Colony (just kidding American readers).

Much like South Korea, America is a country where traditionally football hasn't had a particularly high profile, but nevertheless, the national side has been one of the most consistent performers of recent times- 2010 will be their sixth consecutive World Cup appearance, an achievement which is admirable, but undoubtedly aided by the weakness of their fellow CONCACAF members. But as we saw last summer at the Confederations Cup, USA! USA! (as they shall hereafter be known, credit: The Fiver) are capable of some impressive performances against seemingly superior opposition.

How did they get there?
Efficiently. Along with Mexico, the USA are top dogs in CONCACAF, and this time around, they took full advantage of the dip in form from the regional rivals (see my Mexico preview for more details) and qualified in clinical fashion, the high point of the campaign probably being a 3-2 away win against Honduras, in a venue notorious for its anti-American hostility...I wonder why. But I digress...

Their only two defeats came against Trinidad & Tobago (when they had already advanced to the second phase) and against Mexico at the Azteca Stadium, one of the most intimidating venues in world football, so no shame there. The major issue for me is defence, where they conceded thirteen goals, more than both Mexico and Honduras, the other two qualifiers from CONCACAF. Considering the standard of opposition, that should be worrying the coach, a man who does worrying pretty well, as you'll see below.

Who's the coach?
In an era when player power is becoming more pronounced, when agents routinely bypass clubs when laying the groundwork for transfers, men like Bob Bradley are something of a rarity. Following a disappointing World Cup in 2006 (a single point from three group games), most observers expected California resident and recently departed Germany coach Jurgen Klinsmann to be appointed the new head coach, with the idea being that he would combine his familiarity with American soccer culture with his proven international track record, having just taken an unfancied German side to the semi-finals.

Following his embarrassing stint at Bayern, we know that for all his greatness as a player, Jurgen Klinsmann the manager is at best a great judge of backroom staff, and at worst a man out of his depth. When contract negotiations broke down, the USSF chose Bradley as an interim coach, presumably whilst a more high-profile figure was sought. But during this period Bradley went about assembling a ten-game undefeated streak, including a 2-0 win over Mexico, and was named Head Coach in May 2007. He then proceeded to win the Gold Cup, and quickly developed a reputation for getting the best out his players, if not much affection from them.

Bradley (born in Montclair NJ, Sopranos fans) is a coach in the mould of Louis Van Gaal, generally remaining aloof and terse with the media, whilst proving willing to pick his starting XI from a deep pool of players, with previous achievements playing little part in his selection choices. A strict disciplinarian, his methods have not yet been questioned, a fact undoubtedly linked to his continued success, which culminated at the Confederations Cup, where he could often be seen brooding and muttering on the touchline. An uncharismatic coach, but nevertheless an effective one.

Ones to watch:
Despite the continued expansion of the MLS, which will grow to eighteen teams within the next couple of seasons, and currently resides in terms of quality somewhere between League One and the Championship, the USA has caught up with the rest of the world in at least one respect- their top players now play in Europe, almost without exception.

Of Bradley's initial selection of twenty-eight, nineteen are currently playing in Europe, a development which has undoubtedly accelerated the rise of the national team, which now lies 14th in FIFA's rankings. Most names will be familiar to any casual fan- Tim Howard, Clint Dempsey and Landon Donovan are close to the best in their positions in the Premier League, and the squad is also packed with promise- Jozy Altidore and Stuart Holden will become decent Premier League professionals given time.

However, as I mentioned earlier there are holes in a defence which was widely hailed last summer, particularly following the famous defeat of Spain. Jay Demerit was outstanding that day, both outmuscling and outclassing Fernando Torres. He is currently without a club, having let his contract with Watford expire, presumably expecting a more high-profile after the World Cup. I generally don't let my club bias shine through on this blog, because let's face it, no one really wants to read about Watford apart from other Watford fans.

But if Demerit gets anywhere near his performances of last summer in June, I'll be stunned. This season, he has been captain and starting centre-back in one of the Championship's worst defences, a defence which conceded an average of 1.5 goals per game. He is often left flat-footed by quicker players, regularly berates his defensive colleagues for the smallest, most inconsequential mistakes, and is a poor communicator, capable of shocking lapses in concentration. I'm not saying this because he's just left Watford, I'm calling it as I see it. We're better off without the guy, so if you read a preview praising him, just remember this one, written by someone who's almost certainly seen him more than whoever wrote it, ok? His partner was Oguchi Onyewu, who secured a move to AC Milan following his performances, but has not played a game this season thanks to a long-term injury. With their replacements of negligible quality, defence is, as I have previously said, the major worry for Bradley.

Further up the field, the relationship between Michael Bradley (and yes, he is the son of Bob) and Landon Donovan is crucial. Undoubtedly the most talented players in the squad, both are in possession of great vision, Bradley with the ball at his feet, Donovan with his ability to find space behind and between defenders. Both have benefited from their European experience this season- Donovan at Everton and Bradley at Borussia Monchengladbach, and look completely at home at the higher level. Bradley in particular has improved greatly, he was inconsistent last summer, but is now fully capable of controlling ball distribution with a wide range of passing, short and long.

How will they do?
Given a favourable draw, the USA are undoubtedly capable of progressing into the round of 16, and perhaps beyond. As with any group stages followed by knockout format, this isn't entirely in their hands. Bradley will hope to frustrate England and come away with a draw, or a counter-attacking win. I can see the former coming to pass, although the thought of Wayne Rooney against Demerit and Onyewu is not one to cheer USA fans.

Algeria and Slovenia are more manageable propositions, as we shall see in the next couple of days. As for the round of 16...given my current thoughts on Group D, it's unlikely that the USA will get to match their 2002 performance, where they were among the last eight teams. But more of that later this week. God bless America.

My prediction: Eliminated in the round of 16.

Previous previews:

Saturday, May 15, 2010

World Cup Preview no. 9: England

Between now and the opening ceremony, I'll be taking a look at the nations participating in this year's World Cup, an event which is slowly consuming me with excitement. Share my pain! Group C opens with Our Glorious Nation, Engerland.

I'm going to put it out there early- I have a problem with lending unconditional support to a national side. Perhaps it's because I'm not a huge fan of the Premier League, perhaps it's because I hate the jingoistic media coverage that dominates in this country, perhaps I just dislike any team containing John Terry, but it's difficult to write in an unbiased way about England. I'm fully aware that during the tournament itself I'll be sucked into the wave of mass hysteria, and maybe that's what worries me the most, the mental weaknesses that England expose. Either way, right now it's easier to get excited about reserve Greek strikers, and that about sums up my feelings towards this England squad.

How did they get there?
After the debacle of the Euro 2008 qualification campaign, what England needed more than anything was a trouble-free, goal-heavy run of games, with a place in the top seeds pot at the end of it. Incredibly, that's what they got, with the only defeat coming once qualification had already been secured. Sections of the press clearly weren't prepared for this (hell, I certainly wasn't) and so they defaulted to their let's attempt a crisis mode, citing perceived deficiencies all across the pitch, from goalkeeper (fair) to midfield (not so fair).

I know it's reductionist, and easy to say because it's not my job, but I wish that people would analyse the England team far, far less than they do. History tells us that a decent qualification campaign or otherwise generally has very little impact on the tournament that follows it. The reasons for this are as numerous as they are obvious- preparation time, the removal of seasonal club-related pressures, etc...yet somehow we expect to be illuminated as to the status of the team by watching them on a godawful pitch against negative, godawful teams, in the middle of a tiring season. So the world turns.

Who's the coach?
It's a shame that the Capello Index story was buried right before he announced his 30-man provisional squad, as I for one was looking forward to seeing if it would continue to justify his selection of John Terry over, I don't know, anyone. But perhaps I was always hoping for too much. The fact that such a non-story briefly caused waves indicates how frustrating Capello must be to certain sections of the press (I promise that's the last time I use that phrase in this preview) who are used to Sven and Schteve writing their stories for them. In Capello, England have for the first time since Bobby Robson an articulate, intelligent, well-travelled manager who has an almost unblemished track record of success in every aspect of his job, a man who presided over one of the greatest performances of all time- AC Milan's 4-0 destruction of an outstanding Barcelona side in the 1994 European Cup Final.

As England manager, he has attempted to purge (with varying degrees of success) the clubby mentality that pervaded the squad before his arrival, and I have particularly enjoyed his evident frustration at the morons he has had to deal with. After Cassano, he must have thought he'd seen everything. And even now, after all these feats, he does more to make me love him- he considers a switch to 3-5-2. Fabio, stop it, please, not in public.

Ones to watch:
For a more in-depth dissection of the pros and cons of England switching to 3-5-2, I thoroughly recommend this excellent, excellent piece by Zonal Marking. I have little to add to it beyond agreement, and would remind readers that when a formation or style is dismissed out of hand in England, it's generally either because it's not fully understood, or we were never very good at it. Capello won Serie A using 3-5-2, and in 2010 it would be particularly beneficial to Glen Johnson, who would have more licence to do what he does best- bomb forward. It would also allow Frank Lampard (England's best midfielder) more space, as Gerrard could be pushed further up the field in his favoured number 10 role. There are issues with the formation, as teams with wingers would have a field day against the flat-footed Terry or Upson, and an unfit Ferdinand.

Whether Capello will eventually decide on the formation is unclear, I'llknow more after I watch England play Mexico on the 24th of this month. Either way, it'll make for a more interesting discussion than who should play alongside Wayne Rooney.

How will they do?
It's tempting, very tempting, to predict another quarter-final exit. But because I respect Capello more than any other manager England have had in the last twenty years, because England are (if my Group predictions are correct, which they are) in a fairly forgiving half of the draw, and because it's My Country (just kidding) I can genuinely see a semi-final spot where, by my calculations, they will be eliminated by the eventual winners. I'm not going to spoil my previews by revealing who that side may be, but take a look at the knockout stage and see for yourself. There's less than a month to go, if you haven't got one of those to fill out by now, shame on you. It's a beautiful day, what are you waiting for?

My prediction: Semi-finals.

Previous previews: